Sinn Feín Gain at Labour's Loss

In a lead up to any vote the media is awash with polling. This is the latest poll from Millward Brown Lansdowne for the Irish Independent. It shows a drop in support for both parties in Government, with Labour continuing to see a strong drop in support, while opposition party Sinn Féin rise at what seems to be Labour's expense.

Fine Gael support remains around 36%, similar to their in the general election success, throughout all polls with 2 major exceptions. The last Sunday Business Post/Red C poll they dropped below 30% for the first time to 29% and in April last year in a poll carried out by The Sunday Times/Behaviour and Attitudes they had 44% support.

Their coalition partners, The Labour Party, have seen their support drop significantly at each poll since July last year. The honeymoon period for the Labour Party in government remained strong when in September a Sunday Times/Behaviour and Attitudes poll put them at 12% of the vote. Since then it has been up and down.  Another Sunday Times/Behaviour and attitudes poll put them at just 10% in February 2012.  Since then Labour have been hovering below 16% in most polls.

Fianna Fáil, the 3rd largest party in the Dail, saw their support decimated at the General Election. Polls haven't shown any really growth in support for the party since then, but neither have they shown a major drop in support. Their biggest regain in support came in the last Sunday Business Post/Red C poll, which gave them 19%, and the worst result for the party came in a Sunday Independent/Millward Brown Lansdowne poll in September last year, which put them at just 10%.

Sinn Feín, the 4th largest party, have seen strong growth in most polls since the General Election. They have yet to fall back below 10% support, their largest support came in the last Sunday Business Post/Red  C poll, which for first time saw the party reach above 20% support at 21%. Their support has not dropped below 10% since the General Election.

The Green Party lost all six seats but some information is provided about their support since the general election, which saw them at a 2% share of the vote. The Green Party have not done well since leaving government. Their highest bounce back was in April 2012 in a Sunday Times/Behaviour and Attitudes poll which saw them with a 5% support level, however most polls have put them between 1% and 3%.

Independents and Others remain high at 18% of the vote in the last poll by the Irish Independent/Millward Brown Lansdowne. Their highest share of the vote was March with 20% (this support also includes Green Party Support). However Others and Independents have not seen any major drops since the General Election 2011.

The table below outlines the average support for each party since the general election, the averages point to a swing from Labour to Sinn Féin, with both parties having an average support of 16% since the general election.

The Table Below out lines all of the political polls carried out on party support since the General Election 2011 (with thanks to wikipedia for providing the information.)